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Dear US retiree,
This morning the market woke up and remembered something it occasionally forgets.
America is not a country that stays down.
Overnight a framework peace deal was announced that could end the Iran conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping.
The market's response was immediate. Decisive. Unambiguous.
Oil crashed. WTI crude down nearly 6% to $80 per barrel at the time of writing. Brent crude down around 5%.
S&P 500 futures up over 2%.
Nasdaq 100 futures up more than 3%.
South Korea's Kospi jumped over 5%. Japan's Nikkei up roughly 3%. France's CAC 40 up nearly 1.5%.
Every major market on earth moved in the same direction at the same moment.
Up.
Because when the Strait of Hormuz opens, 20 million barrels of oil per day start moving again. Energy prices fall. Supply chains breathe. Inflation cools. The global economy exhales.
And the people who stayed invested through the fear get rewarded.
Again.
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The Pattern That Never Changes.
Harold is 71 years old.
Retired engineer from Cleveland. Pension. Social Security. A 401k he has been carefully managing for 15 years.
When the Iran conflict escalated in March and oil spiked to $4.51 at the pump, Harold called his financial advisor.
He wanted to move to cash.
Not everything. Just a meaningful portion. Wait for things to settle down. Get back in when it felt safer.
His advisor talked him out of it.
Harold was frustrated. The news was terrifying. Every headline pointed to escalation. Energy experts were warning of sustained high prices. The 2027 COLA projection jumped to 3.3% because inflation was running hot.
This morning Harold's portfolio is up over 2% before the market even opens.
The people who moved to cash in March are sitting on the sidelines right now watching this happen.
Harold is not.
Here is the principle that explains why Harold's advisor was right.
The market does not reward the people who feel safest.
It rewards the people who stay invested when everyone else is scared.
The Math Behind "Never Bet Against America."
This is not a political statement. It is an arithmetic one.
Here are the facts.
The US economy is the largest on earth. $29 trillion in annual GDP. Nearly 25% of all global economic output produced by one country with 4% of the world's population.
The US stock market represents approximately 44% of total global market capitalization. The next largest single country market is Japan at roughly 6%.
When you own a diversified US equity index fund you own a piece of the most productive economic machine in human history.
A machine that has survived the Great Depression.
World War Two.
The Cold War. Vietnam. Stagflation.
The savings and loan crisis.
The dot-com collapse.
September 11th.
The 2008 financial crisis.
COVID.
Inflation.
Geopolitical conflict after geopolitical conflict.
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Every single time something terrible happened the market eventually recovered.
Not because the terrible thing was not real. It was real.
But because the underlying productivity, creativity, and resilience of the American economy kept compounding through all of it.
Here is the number that puts this in permanent perspective.
$10,000 invested in the S&P 500 in 1980 is worth approximately $1,100,000 today.
Through every crisis listed above. Through every moment someone credible stood up and said this time is different. Through every oil shock. Every war. Every recession.
$10,000 became $1.1 million.
Not because nothing bad happened.
Because something more powerful than the bad things kept happening underneath them.
American companies kept building. Kept innovating. Kept generating profits. Kept growing.
That is not politics. That is math.
What This Morning Means for Your Retirement Specifically.
Three things changed this morning that affect you directly.
One. Gas prices are coming down.
WTI crude at $80 per barrel means gas prices at the pump will fall in the coming weeks. If the peace deal holds and the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, analysts expect prices to continue falling.
That is money back in your pocket every time you fill up your car. Real dollars. Immediate.
Two. The 2027 COLA projection just shifted.
Remember our email last week about the Trump Bump. The 3.3% COLA projection was driven largely by energy-driven inflation. The same Iran conflict and energy price surge that pushed inflation higher.
If oil prices fall and stay lower for the rest of the third quarter, the inflation data that drives the COLA calculation changes. The 2027 COLA could come in lower than 3.3%.
That sounds like bad news. It is not. A lower COLA driven by lower inflation means your purchasing power is not eroding as fast. Your fixed expenses are cheaper. A $69 per month raise is worth more when gas costs $3.50 than when it costs $4.51.
Lower inflation. Lower COLA. Same or better real purchasing power. That is the math.
Three. If you stayed invested through the fear, today is your reward.
Every retiree who moved to cash during the worst of the Iran conflict news is watching from the sidelines this morning as the market jumps.
Every retiree who held. Who kept their automatic monthly contributions running. Who did what Maryellyn did with her SpaceX shares. Who did what Harold's advisor told him to do. Is starting this week with a portfolio that just moved meaningfully higher before the opening bell.
That is not luck. That is conviction rewarded.
One Important Caution Before You Get Too Comfortable.
The framework deal has not been signed yet.
Expected signature is Friday, June 20th.
Questions remain. The specific terms are not fully public. There are outstanding issues involving multiple parties. The situation could still shift before Friday.
Markets are pricing in the best case scenario this morning. That is what markets do. They move fast on news and recalibrate on reality.
The lesson is not to run out and make dramatic portfolio changes based on one morning's move.
The lesson is exactly the opposite.
Stay invested. Stay diversified. Let the long-term trajectory do its work.
This morning is not a reason to buy aggressively.
It is a reason to stay the course.
The people who were already invested are already winning. The people who try to jump back in now after sitting in cash since March are buying higher than they sold. That is how it always works. That is why timing the market is the single most reliably losing strategy in investing history.
The Only Bet That Has Ever Made Sense.
There is a reason the phrase never bet against America has survived for generations.
Not because America is perfect. Not because nothing ever goes wrong.
Because the math of American economic productivity over time has made every short-term bet against it look foolish in hindsight.
Every crisis became a buying opportunity in retrospect.
Every moment of maximum fear turned out to be exactly the wrong time to sell.
Every retiree who held through the scary headlines and came out the other side looked back at the moment they almost sold and felt grateful they did not.
This morning is one of those retrospective moments happening in real time.
The Strait of Hormuz is opening.
The market is jumping.
Oil is crashing.
And the retirees who stayed invested are sitting at their kitchen tables right now watching their portfolios move in the right direction.
Not because they predicted this. Not because they knew the deal was coming. Not because they timed anything perfectly.
Because they understood one thing above everything else.
The long arc of American economic productivity bends upward.
It always has.
It always will.
Stay invested. Stay diversified. Stay unscared.
Stay sharp.
— US Retirement Report
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This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, or investment advice. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any decisions.
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